NFL Thursday Betting Preview: New York vs. Buffalo

September 15, 2016 •

A very tight match up will take place Thursday night as the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets will both try to get their first win in a game many betting experts are saying is too close to call.

If you look at the records you can understand why. The Buffalo Bills are a perfect 5-0 straight up and against the spread in their last five games against the New York Jets. The Bills will try to make that a sixth straight win over their division rivals, and they’ll try to do it at home.

Buffalo and New York are coming off as a wild game at the sportsbooks, and strangely enough both games between Buffalo and New York had the same final score in 2015, with the Bills winning 22-17. Is three their lucky charm?

Overall, so far no team had less yards on offense in their season opener last week than the Buffalo Bills. They has just 95 passing yards and 65 rushing yards and racked up only 160 yards in a 13-7 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. With that road loss, the Bills fell to 0-1 and will want to turn that around this week in their return home. Since they have won their last four games at New Era Field.

The Bills have also played well coming off a loss recently with an 8-3 record in their last 11 games following a loss. Buffalo has a winning record in their last 15 games played in Week 2, so the odds could be with them.

The Jets on the other handing are trending in the opposite direction, and are 0-5 straight up in their last five games against the Bills. Another trend to look out for and bet on is that the total has gone under in 10 of the Bills’ last 14 games as home favorites, so it might be a good bet to go against the spread.

Last week, the Jets had the lead throughout most of their season-opening game against the Cincinnati Bengals, but a 47-yard field goal with 54 seconds left on the clock foiled the Jets and gave the Bengals a 23-22 road win, which was a huge disappointment for New York.

On the brighter side for the Jets, they acquired in the offseason a great free agent in Matt Forte, who seemed to fit well into the Jets offense. He rushed for 96 yards and caught five passes for 59 yards in the opening game. But the Jets passing defense will have to be a lot better this week after allowing 366 yards to get through the air on Sunday. But they have some interesting offs, since New York is 5-1-1 against the spread in its last seven Week 2 games.

Thursday night’s total is set at 40.5 points which might be a bit high. The under is 3-0 in the last three games between these two teams so that might be a good trend to bet on.

Neither of these two teams can afford to fall to 0-2 in the AFC East with the New England Patriots doing so well with backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo as their star Tom Brady is out. There is a lot on the line for both of these teams as they will fight it out for an important spot in the win column Thursday night. They need to steal as many games while Brady is out.

The smart pick would be to go against the trend since the payoff is bigger. The Bills finished out last season on a 4-0 win record at home, keeping opponents to 15.25 points per game and posting a pair of victories in the double-digit margins. But this year Buffalo’s offense has started to become a concern, especially after a very feeble performance, one of their worst in the last decade. Bills QB, Tyrod Di’allo Taylor has now failed to make it to the end zone in three straight games, and he got sacked six times in total in the two meetings with New York last year. That could easily happen again.

The Jets defense is pretty good, and has limited its opponents to just 18 points per game over their past five road games. While their offense is not something to be overly worried about, it shouldn’t be dismissed either, since they are capable of getting and holding the upper hand in what promises to be a gigantic defensive struggle. But New York should come out on top and put a stop to their straight up and against the spread losing streak against the Bills.

Our Pick: Jets over Bills, 22-17