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The Contenders

Papiss Cisse vs. Chelsea: Evens

A great goal and because it will be so fresh in peoples’ minds when the goal of the season award if given out we think it’s great value at this price. Cisse has been a fantastic addition for Newcastle, and the technique and the swerve he gets on the ball makes it almost the perfect strike. The difficulty level of doing this with the outside of the foot makes it a technically superior strike to Crouch’s goal and we think the BBC’s judging panel will be swayed by this and the fact that he pulled it off in such an important game.

Watch Cisse’s Goal

Peter Crouch vs. Man City: 11/10

Last week you’d have said that Crouch had wrapped up after his great goal from nowhere against Man City a month ago. A Daily Mail poll the next day saw 80% of voters call it the goal of the season so far. It was a sweet strike for such a tall, and frankly awkward looking man, but 11/10 doesn’t represent great value in him overturning Cisse at this stage.

Watch Crouch’s goal

Luis Suarez vs. Norwich: 4/1

Luis Suarez also decided he’d like to get in on the goal of the season voting recently with his 3rd against Norwich, a devine lob that saw the ‘keeper left flapping in no man’s land. It’s hard to argue that it wasn’t a great goal, but every decent striker should be able to hit the target from there and most of the appeal in this goal is in the vision which he had in reading the situation. I think this one’s going to be an also ran in the voting, and the real battle will be between Crouch and Cisse.

Watch Suarez’s goal.

The NBA Playoffs for 2012 are underway and already there’s been plenty of drama and excitement, but how do the bookmakers read the action so far?To Chicago first and they’re heavy favourites to beat Philadelphia at 1/6 after taking a 1-0 lead. They’re still distant second favourites at 15/4 to win the conference with the Heat a lock to win the East at 2/5 after  taking a 2-0 series lead against New York. It will certainly be an interesting matchup if the two meet in the conference final.

Beyond those two, Boston are next in line but rank outsiders at 12/1 to win the East. Despite being 1-0 down to the Hawks the bookmakers have them about evens to progress to the next round. Elsewhere in the East, Indiana are hot favourites to go through against Orlando with the series tied at 1-1.

Moving out West and the OKC Thunder are the favourites to progress to the finals at 23/20. They are currently 2-0 against a tired looking Dallas Maverick team. Next are the San Antonio Spurs at 9/5. The number one ranked team in the west are 1-0 against Utah and are an astounding 1/40 to progress.  Things are much tighter between the LA Clippers and the Memphis Grizzlies . LA are one up after their heroic 27 point comeback and are at 10/13 to go through with Memphis slight outsiders at 11/10. The final series in the West, between Denver and the Lakers sees LA one up and 5/16 to go through, so the bookies aren’t ruling out a Denver comeback completely.

The bookies are banking on a Miami vs Oklahoma final and make Miami favourites at 13/10 to win it all with Oklahoma at 13/4. The Bulls at 9/1 look like the only value bet in the outright winner market. In the series matchups its also hard to see any real value. The Clippers at 10/13 seems like the only decent pick, but other than Chicago to win outright, I think it’s time to sit on your hands for a little bit and see how the markets move after the next round of games.

After a ferocious battle with Clermont Auvergne in France, Leinster emerged victorious by the skin of their teeth to book a place in the Heineken Cup final against countrymen Ulster at Twickenham on the 19th of May at 5pm. 

Leinster and Clermont went off dead even with the bookies and they proved their price with a close fought battle all the way that saw Leinster scrape it thanks to some resilient defending and just a little help from the referee. Ulster on other hand battled hard to get past a dogged Edinburgh side in what wasn’t a pretty match

So what can we expect at Twickenham? Well, most pundits have written off Ulster and early suggestions were that the handicap should be as high as Ulster +15, with most agreeing that +12 is a fair line. Early indications are that the bookmakers think it’ll be a little bit closer than that, with Bet365 offering just a 7 point handicap, with Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and William Hill all erring on the side of caution a little bit more and going for 8 points.

All signs point to a relatively easy win for Leinster and despite Ulster stating that they’re comfortable in the underdogs role and that they’ll doubtless give it all they have, I think that Leinster’s class in the open and the incredible defensive structure that Joe Schmidt employs will see them run out winners. The only areas for concern for Leinster are in the scrum which has been under a lot of pressure in recent weeks (both in the Rabodirect Pr012 and the Heineken Cup), and the lineout which wasn’t firing on all cylinders in the first half in France.

Schmidt’s ability to change things up at half time and react in real-time to any strategy that his opponents are employing means that while Ulster may be some value to cover the first half handicap, the guile and resilience of Leinster should see them march easily to a double digit victory by the time the 80 minutes are up.

My lock bet for this one is Leinster -7 with Bet365, with consideration for Ulster +4 at half time, though first half handicaps haven’t been published yet.

News emerged this week that stunned the poker community. Apparently the deal we all thought was going through between Groupe Bernard Tapie (GBT) and Full Tilt Poker had gone sour and the new suitor was none other than online poker giant PokerStars?

The news broke on internet forum twoplustwo through a post by a user who had never posted before. It looked for all the world like another hoax, but heads started to turn when forum moderators decided to leave the thread up, stating that they had corroborating stories from trusted sources to suggest that there might just be some truth to the rumour. For the rest of the day, Twitter was the main source for information on the story. The first indication came from the Tapie group who confirmed through a statement that the deal had indeed fallen through, due to the fact that they couldn’t agree a deal with the US Department of Justice over how American players who had funds on the site should be refunded. In the same release, GBT cited sabotage as part of the reason that the deal fell through. 

Later in the day, the most credible piece of evidence that PokerStars were stepping in came from the CEO of Chili Gaming Alex Dreyfus who tweeted:

Pokerstars buys FullTilt for a consideration of $750m, including settlement with DOJ and full balances of players (330m). I’m impressed.

PokerStars however have said nothing on the subject, and taken a ‘no comment’ line in the media. High profile players like Daniel Negreanu who expressed surprise when the story broke has said nothing since. The fact that there has been no denial from PokerStars leads us to believe there must be at least some truth to the story.

While some are heralding ‘Stars as the white knights of online poker, others are worried that the acquisition of Full Tilt would give them a complete stranglehold over the online poker industry and put them in a position of monopolistic dominance which would ultimately be bad for the industry. Its likely that we’re going to have to suffer radio-silence for a while before we find out the truth behind this story.

It’s time for some US Masters 2012 Betting tips! This years Masters promises to be one of the most exciting in years. With Tiger Woods’ recent win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational Tournament at Bay Hill, bookies have installed him as the favourite for the win at Augusta. Most bookmakers have Tiger listed at 7/2 but in the early going you can get 4/1 (+400) at Ladbrokes, or the same price at Bovada if you’re a US bettor. It seems like a short price and is a good indication that the bookmakers are still scared of Tiger. Despite his play still being quite erratic and his putting questionable, he’s rarely been a shorter price for the Masters.

Rory McIlroy who was favourite up until this past weekend will tee off as the second favourite at most sportsbooks, and can be had at 5/1 on Bet365 and Ladbrokes, while Americans will have to settle for 4/1 (+400) at Bovada or 9/2 (+450) at Intertops.

Next in the betting is Phil Mickelson, who comes in at 12/1 on Bet365 and 11/1 on Bovada. At 3 times the price of Woods, Mickelson probably represents the best value bet of the three big guns.

Further down the field, Charles Schwartzel at 35/1 looks like a fun bet. The defending champ obviously knows his away around Augusta and has made the cut in 9 straight majors. Looking beyond him, Bubba Watson at 45/1 on Bet365 seems like its worth a small bet. He generally tends to make the weekend at Augusta and will give you a run for your money. Let’s not forget about another hot hand, Graeme McDowell, whose 60/1 looks very generous.

The long term weather forecast is currently showing rain for Thursday and Friday and a dry weekend, but obviously its too early to tell definitively at the moment.

15 of the 16 German states have agreed to award 20 nationwide sports betting licenses to companies, which in the view of the European Commission contravenes EU competition laws. The proposal also recommends the banning of online poker and casino games on the basis that they can become addictive for participants, and can be very easily rigged against players. This is despite the fact that all reputable online gambling companies have their random number generation software independent audited by large consulting firms.

The treaty also highlights the possibility that poker and games could be used for money laundering purposes.

Betfair’s chief legal and regulatory affairs officer said:

“The proposals contravene fundamental EU free market principles and it is only right that the Commission acts to prevent member states from enacting legislation designed to keep local monopolies in and the competition out.”

Only the state of Schleswig-Holstein has adopted the more liberal regime which the European Commission are in favour of, but it hopes the other states will fall into line in due course.

PokerStars‘ long awaited ‘Rush Poker’ competitor hit the client this week and it proved an immediate hit. Of course Rush Poker no longer exists as Full Tilt’s financial and organisational difficulties continue, so at the moment PokerStars only competition in the ‘fast moving’ market is the little known Terminal Poker.

Zoom Poker is very similar in execution to Rush Poker. As soon as you fold at any point in a hand you’re immediately whisked away to another table made of others in the player pool who have also just folded, and a new hand begins straight away. You can even fold and leave the table before its your turn to act, but of course the other players won’t know your intentions until the action comes around to you. For the introduction of Zoom Poker, PokerStars have made their animations crisper and smoother, and closer to what used to be on Full Tilt. They’ve also added a couple of other nice options like being able to stick around at a table to see how the action pans out by holding the CTRL key when you press fold.

As of yet, tracking software packages like Holdem Manager haven’t released an update that will make them compatible with Zoom Poker so its unknown how Zoom will compare with Rush in terms of hands per hour. Initial reports are that it’s a little bit slower, but still in the region of 250 hands per hour on a single table.

At the moment only micro-stakes play is available, with up to 5c/10c being available for Holdem and Omaha. All going well, Stars will add higher stakes as bug are cleared up, though they seem to be few and far between. It’s not known yet when Zoom Poker tournaments will come online, nor whether they have plans to introduce Zoom Poker for other games like Omaha High-Low.

We have no doubt that Zoom Poker will be a roaring success as is the case with everything PokerStars does and they’ll surely be constantly refining and adding improvements to the product.

Ongame is the 6th largest poker network and still has a healthy user base, having recently acquired the player pool from Betfair poker who opted to join the network after being a stand alone provider for several years previous. 

Shuffle Master is a Las Vegas based supplier of casino and poker equipment, most notably automatic card shuffling machines. The acquisition allows Shuffle Master to expand their online operations ahead of regulated online gaming in the USA. In fact, €10M of the purchase price is contingent on the return of the US to the online poker market within 5 years.

The Shuffle Master press release said:

“The acquisition of Ongame will provide Shuffle Master with world class poker software and an entire enterprise with proven skills and the operational experience that will permit us to begin immediately offering state-of-the-art B2B online products following the closing of the acquisition,” said Louis Castle.  “We are very focused on creating greater value for our current and future customers and, as a result, our objective is to make Ongame the most comprehensive and competitive poker engine in the marketplace. We believe that Ongame’s first-to-market history of execution is perfectly positioned to take advantage of the growing online market in Europe and the potential legalization of online poker in the U.S.”

The future for the bwin poker product looks unclear now, as it seems unlikely that bwin.party will keep their poker players on the Ongame network when they no longer have ownership of it. A merging of the Party and bwin player pool has been touted for over a year, but still hasn’t come to pass

The granting of the license clears up a number of issues around taxation which were u

Eric Hollreiser, Head of Corporate Communications at PokerStars said:, Pokerstars announced today that they’ve made a successful application for a license in Malta as a result of which they’re expected to launch new site PokerStars.eu as early as next week.

“Obtaining an online gaming license is an arduous task.  It requires significant resources and a willingness to allow detailed scrutiny of company practices and procedures that examine an applicant’s credentials in important areas like integrity, security and attitudes to responsible gaming”

“We’re happy to submit to this, though, when there’s a clear benefit to players, the industry or our company.  In particular, as far as our players are concerned, we believe that each new license we obtain underscores the reasons why they should feel comfortable playing with us.  We don’t know of any company in our industry that has been licensed by as many jurisdictions as PokerStars.”

PokerStars’ efforts fly in the face of many of the recent scandals which have tarnished the online poker industry and as a result they have managed to maintain their traffic levels in the wake of Black Friday, which saw them lose a large chunk of their player base.

They continue to dominate the market, and are now more than five times bigger than closest rival Party Poker, when it comes to number of active players. Even if Full Tilt Poker does make a return, they will have their work  cut out for them if they hope to come close to their former position, rivaling the traffic at PokerStars.